global warming

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Re: global warming

Postby Ben » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:19 am

Climate change report a wake-up call: Combet


The World Today
By Sabra Lane and Eleanor Hall
Updated 4 hours 11 minutes ago


Climate Change Minister Greg Combet says a new report is a wake-up call to those who deny global warming is a problem.

The Climate Commission's latest report warns that climate change is already increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather in Australia.

The report, which has been backed by Australia's top climate scientists and science bodies, says that in some cases Australia's climate has shifted permanently.

The rest is here:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-03/c ... rt/4607734
Learn this from the waters:
in mountain clefts and chasms,
loud gush the streamlets,
but great rivers flow silently.

Taṃ nadīhi vijānātha:
sobbhesu padaresu ca,
saṇantā yanti kusobbhā,
tuṇhīyanti mahodadhī.

Sutta Nipata 3.725


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Re: global warming

Postby billy_leo » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:44 am

I read a book that it said the emotion may cause the the weather changes :reading:
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Re: global warming

Postby Alex123 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:54 am

Ben wrote:Climate Change Minister Greg Combet says a new report is a wake-up call to those who deny global warming is a problem.


As far as I know, nobody denies climate change. And both hot and cold climates pose their own challenges. This is Earth, not Heaven.

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Re: global warming

Postby Ben » Wed Apr 03, 2013 12:14 pm

Alex123 wrote:
As far as I know, nobody denies climate change.


You are wrong.
Learn this from the waters:
in mountain clefts and chasms,
loud gush the streamlets,
but great rivers flow silently.

Taṃ nadīhi vijānātha:
sobbhesu padaresu ca,
saṇantā yanti kusobbhā,
tuṇhīyanti mahodadhī.

Sutta Nipata 3.725


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Re: global warming

Postby Alex123 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 12:30 pm

Kim O'Hara wrote: All of his points, I think, are answered here - http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php - and I would encourage you to read that page and the references it points to ... and then present it to your prof to see what he says


Lets start with 1st one.

1.
"Climate's changed before" - Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant forcing.


How much Carbon are we releasing vs how much carbon nature releases?

Another one:
4.
Science achieves a consensus when scientists stop arguing.


What about those few revolutionaries such as Galileo? Or Einstein? If Galileo followed prevailing scientific view of his time, he would not discover that earth rotates around the sun, not sun around the Earth.

Quite the opposite. Progress in science is all about critique and verifying of existing propositions.


"It hasn't warmed since 1998" For global records, 2010 is the hottest year on record, tied with 2005.


So, since 1998 only TWO years had hotter than recent temperatures. 1999-2004, 2006-2009, 2011-2013 were not. 11 years didn't break records, two did break recent records.

I also would like to remind you that when it says "such and such year was hottest on record" we need to remember that these compare temperatures to glacial or interglacial levels. For millions of years during Paleozoic, Mesozoic, and first part of Cenozoic the average temperature was MUCH higher than today. We happen to live in the interglacial period when Earth naturally bounces off its unusual LOWS.

16.
"Hockey stick is broken" Recent studies agree that recent global temperatures are unprecedented in the last 1000 years.


Earth existed for ~4.5 billion years. What about comparing temperature to more usual averages it was for MILLIONS of years.

19 "Glaciers are growing" Most glaciers are retreating, posing a serious problem for millions who rely on glaciers for water.


We are in interglacial, not glacial. This is what happens. There were periods of times when there was no, or even less snow than today.


I can go on if you wish.
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Re: global warming

Postby Alex123 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 12:33 pm

Ben wrote:
Alex123 wrote:
As far as I know, nobody denies climate change.


You are wrong.



Please provide examples. I am yet to hear anyone say that climate never changes. If anyone believes that climate never changes, then I disagree with them. Climate does change. I also agree that humans need to find better energy sources and take care of the environment. I do believe that we have a problem with coal, gas, etc - they are limited and will end. I am all for reasonable reduction of their use to buy more time to develop greener and better technologies to replace them.
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Re: global warming

Postby Alex123 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:30 pm

I have one question to those who claim that human's co2 emission raise global temperatures which cause more extreme weather events.


Question:
If we would not emit any CO2, how many extreme weather events would occur at certain year vs how many extreme weather events would occur with us releasing CO2? In other words, what is natural amount of earthquakes, tsunamis, droughts, etc, and for how many extreme weather events are our CO2 emissions responsible?
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Re: global warming

Postby Buckwheat » Wed Apr 03, 2013 3:46 pm

Alex123 wrote:
Ben wrote:
Alex123 wrote:As far as I know, nobody denies climate change.

You are wrong.

Please provide examples.

Alex,
I know that you realize, even in the absence of human activity, the climate changes. However, I personally know many people who deny even this basic fact of science. They are often Christian, not-often educated, and usually just repeating something a politician told them.
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Re: global warming

Postby Alex123 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 4:23 pm

Buckwheat wrote:I know that you realize, even in the absence of human activity, the climate changes. However, I personally know many people who deny even this basic fact of science. They are often Christian, not-often educated, and usually just repeating something a politician told them.


Then those people are mistaken. Climate does change and I am big believer in that.
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Re: global warming

Postby Buckwheat » Wed Apr 03, 2013 4:25 pm

These are excerpts, please read the full articles. Also, everything mentioned in this post applies to the continental United States. Hawaii and Alaska are not included because their historic temperature record is not well documented.

For 2012:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/scien ... .html?_r=0
Not Even Close: 2012 Was Hottest Ever in U.S.
Image

How hot was it? The temperature differences between years are usually measured in fractions of a degree, but last year’s 55.3 degree average demolished the previous record, set in 1998, by a full degree Fahrenheit.

Assuming that prediction holds up, it will mean that the 10 warmest years on record all fell within the past 15 years, a measure of how much the planet has warmed. Nobody who is under 28 has lived through a month of global temperatures that fell below the 20th-century average, because the last such month was February 1985.

Last year’s weather in the United States began with an unusually warm winter, with relatively little snow across much of the country, followed by a March that was so hot that trees burst into bloom and swimming pools opened early. The soil dried out in the March heat, helping to set the stage for a drought that peaked during the warmest July on record.

The drought engulfed 61 percent of the nation, killed corn and soybean crops and sent prices spiraling. It was comparable to a severe drought in the 1950s, Mr. Crouch said, but not quite as severe as the legendary Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, which was exacerbated by poor farming practices that allowed topsoil to blow away.

Extensive records covering the lower 48 states go back to 1895; Alaska and Hawaii have shorter records and are generally not included in long-term climate comparisons for that reason.

Mr. Crouch pointed out that until last year, the coldest year in the historical record for the lower 48 states, 1917, was separated from the warmest year, 1998, by only 4.2 degrees Fahrenheit. That is why the 2012 record, and its one degree increase over 1998, strikes climatologists as so unusual.

“We’re taking quite a large step above what the period of record has shown for the contiguous United States,” Mr. Crouch said.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/0 ... 33210.html
The 1°F difference from 1998 is an unusually large margin, considering that annual temperature records are typically broken by just tenths of a degree Fahrenheit. In fact, the entire range between the coldest year on record, which occurred in 1917, and the previous record warm year of 1998 was just 4.2°F.

Image

Image

The drought of 2011-12, which is still ongoing, is comparable in size to severe droughts that occurred in the 1950s, and is already being blamed for more than $35 billion in crop losses alone, according to the reinsurance company Aon Benfield. In fact, it’s quite possible that damage from the drought will eclipse the total bill from Hurricane Sandy, which some estimates place at more than $100 billion. Overall, the drought could end up robbing the limping U.S. economy’s GDP of a full percentage point, said Deutsche Bank Securities.




For 2013:
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_an ... ring_.html
You Think 2012 Is Hot? Wait Until 2013. Barring a volcanic eruption, next year will set records. But don’t blame El Niño.
Image
Meanwhile, El Niño conditions are forecast to develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean, warming up ocean surface temperatures. Some observers have predicted that this will lead to record-breaking global temperatures next year.
If El Niño does arrive and temperature records are broken, there will inevitably be much discussion of the causes of the warming. So now is a good time to sort signal from noise in the global temperature records.

We have independent measurements describing all three that we can easily correlate to global temperature changes. This shows, for example, that during a solar maximum, the globe is about 0.1 C warmer than during a solar minimum, but also that solar activity has contributed nothing to the warming trend of the past 30 years. In fact, it has acted to reduce it, but the effect is so small that the hottest year on record, 2010, was near the end of the deepest solar minimum since satellite measurements began in the 1970s.

The analysis further shows that global temperature typically reaches a maximum about four months after El Niño conditions peak, and is correspondingly colder after La Niña. La Niña episodes in 2008 and 2011 have cooled the past few years, masking the warming trend. But while 2011 was cool in the context of the previous 10 years, it was the hottest La Niña year on record.

It is straightforward to remove the effects of the solar and El Niño cycles from the data, just as unemployment figures routinely have seasonal effects removed. Once this is done, and regardless of the global temperature dataset used, the result is always a steady warming trend that has been no slower in the past decade than it was in the previous two—and which, incidentally, agrees with what is predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Now solar activity is on the way back up, and it is only a matter of time before the next El Niño event comes along. In fact, predictions by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest that El Niño conditions are likely to arrive any time now. These two factors, combined with the ongoing warming trend, make it likely that a global temperature record will be set next year—unless a major volcano erupts.

So if global warming of the past decades was due to El Niño or another mechanism involving heat from the ocean, the ocean would have lost heat. But the heat content has gone up, not down. And it is well understood why: because we created a radiation imbalance by adding greenhouse gases to our atmosphere.
The signal of global warming caused by humans is very clear, despite attempts by certain parties to drown it out with a lot of noise.
Sotthī hontu nirantaraṃ - May you forever be well.
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Re: global warming

Postby Alex123 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 4:43 pm

Buckwheat wrote:These are excerpts, please read the full articles. Also, everything mentioned in this post applies to the continental United States. Hawaii and Alaska are not included because their historic temperature record is not well documented.

For 2012:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/scien ... .html?_r=0
Not Even Close: 2012 Was Hottest Ever in U.S.


Please note: 2012 Was Hottest Ever in U.S. What about the rest of the planet?

Also, of course there is going to be rising of temperatures and receding of glacials in the interglacial period.

The 1°F difference from 1998 is an unusually large margin, considering that annual temperature records are typically broken by just tenths of a degree Fahrenheit. In fact, the entire range between the coldest year on record, which occurred in 1917, and the previous record warm year of 1998 was just 4.2°F.


Over the past 12,000 years, temperatures have varied even more as I've shown on one graph.

There was a huge upward spike about 8,000+ years ago - and humans did not have industries back then. The spike was almost 3 degrees C (about 5 F).
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Re: global warming

Postby Buckwheat » Wed Apr 03, 2013 5:02 pm

I did not say this was the end all be all of evidence. Am I not allowed to point out that the United States is going through unprescedented warming? My food prices are through the roof right now because our farms are drying up. This is affecting my life in concrete ways right now. It is not an abstraction.

Also, the article for 2013 predicts a record hot global temperature. Every factor, including solar output, is pointing toward record heat in 2013. I hope they are wrong, because I do not look for the pain and suffering that would be associated with such warming. Especially given the current conditions in the United States.
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Re: global warming

Postby Alex123 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 5:05 pm

Buckwheat wrote:I did not say this was the end all be all of evidence. Am I not allowed to point out that the United States is going through unprescedented warming?


Sure, some years are warmer than others. Often changes go in waves, they are not linear up or down. I would also not be surprised if temperature might keep going up for a bit because we are living in interglacial.

Also, we need to take time lag of heating/cooling into consideration when we talk about solar cycles. Just like kettle cannot instantly warm cold water to boil , same with sun and earth. Just like boiling water doesn't immediately cool down when kettle is switched off, same is here.
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Re: global warming

Postby poto » Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:58 am

Buckwheat wrote:My food prices are through the roof right now because our farms are drying up. This is affecting my life in concrete ways right now. It is not an abstraction.


Calm down there city slicker. It was a bit too dry for corn last year, but certainly wasn't the worst drought I've seen either. Beans did alright last year and Canada had a bumper crop of wheat last year too.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2 ... anola.html

Your food prices are increasing because of several factors. First is inflation caused by our government and central bank's monetary policy. Second is fuel prices. Third is the subsidies for corn ethanol. We didn't have a complete crop failure, it was just a bad year for corn last year... this happens sometimes. This was compounded by people over-planting corn because of greed for those juicy government subsidies. If you were a farmer you would understand this.

All of the corn my relatives grew last year was sold to an ethanol plant. This was hundreds of acres of corn that could have been used for food, and it's a trend that is repeating itself all across the country. Because of government subsidies, it was far more profitable to sell it to an ethanol plant. This drives up food prices quite a lot. Ironic to see some of the green people complaining about food prices caused partly by your own green policies.
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Re: global warming

Postby Buckwheat » Thu Apr 04, 2013 2:23 am

Poto,
I agree with everything you said except for one thing: I live in a rural area and I am much closer to being a redneck than a city slicker. You were right, however, to assume that I do not live anywhere near a corn farm. The only thing that grows around here are wine grapes and fodder for cattle.
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Re: global warming

Postby danieLion » Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:20 am

Buckwheat wrote:If you have specific, verifiable evidence that some data or interpretation are not trustworthy, then by all means present it.

Evidence is irrelevant when methodology is unsound.
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Re: global warming

Postby cooran » Thu Apr 04, 2013 7:01 am

Ben wrote:Climate change report a wake-up call: Combet


The World Today
By Sabra Lane and Eleanor Hall
Updated 4 hours 11 minutes ago


Climate Change Minister Greg Combet says a new report is a wake-up call to those who deny global warming is a problem.

The Climate Commission's latest report warns that climate change is already increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather in Australia.

The report, which has been backed by Australia's top climate scientists and science bodies, says that in some cases Australia's climate has shifted permanently.

The rest is here:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-03/c ... rt/4607734

Hello Ben, and all,

I went to see The Rainbow Warrior today. Waited three hours in a line to get on board - thousands of people interested in hearing about their current campaign on climate change.


http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/rai ... f/1816662/

With metta
Chris
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---Worry is the Interest, paid in advance, on a debt you may never owe---
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Re: global warming

Postby danieLion » Thu Apr 04, 2013 7:40 am

Humans: they want credit for everything.

Combet: Australia's Al Gore.

"Recycle everything. Even jokes."
-Al Gore
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Re: global warming

Postby Nyana » Thu Apr 04, 2013 9:47 am

danieLion wrote:
Buckwheat wrote:If you have specific, verifiable evidence that some data or interpretation are not trustworthy, then by all means present it.

Evidence is irrelevant when methodology is unsound.

Skepticism doesn't establish anything.
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Re: global warming

Postby Ben » Thu Apr 04, 2013 9:57 am

cooran wrote:I went to see The Rainbow Warrior today. Waited three hours in a line to get on board - thousands of people interested in hearing about their current campaign on climate change.


http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/rai ... f/1816662/

With metta
Chris


That is fantastic, Chris. I hope it was a good experience.
kind regards,

Ben
Learn this from the waters:
in mountain clefts and chasms,
loud gush the streamlets,
but great rivers flow silently.

Taṃ nadīhi vijānātha:
sobbhesu padaresu ca,
saṇantā yanti kusobbhā,
tuṇhīyanti mahodadhī.

Sutta Nipata 3.725


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