Global Warming: Recent Data

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby chownah » Sun Aug 03, 2014 4:16 am

Those craters are interesting! The article seems to be mostly speculation. The article indicates that three craters have been discovered but the picture which heads the article shows a dozen or more......could this be fear mongering?.....exaggerating what is happening?
Seemingly bottomless craters.......oh that is mysterious and scary......I hope someone gets to the bottom of this soon. One wonders how permafrost which is a few meters thick or less could create a 200 m wide seemingly bottomless crater.....

By the way, I do think that melting permafrost is a serious issue.......but this article is way overblown and really seems like fear mongering.......sort of similar to the idiot who publicly declared that Fukushima could warp into a crisis which meant bye bye Tokyo and an evacuation of the west coast of the US. It is journalism like this that supports the opposition.

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Kim OHara » Sun Aug 03, 2014 4:37 am

chownah wrote:Those craters are interesting! The article seems to be mostly speculation. The article indicates that three craters have been discovered but the picture which heads the article shows a dozen or more......could this be fear mongering?.....exaggerating what is happening?
Seemingly bottomless craters.......oh that is mysterious and scary......I hope someone gets to the bottom of this soon. One wonders how permafrost which is a few meters thick or less could create a 200 m wide seemingly bottomless crater.....

By the way, I do think that melting permafrost is a serious issue.......but this article is way overblown and really seems like fear mongering.......sort of similar to the idiot who publicly declared that Fukushima could warp into a crisis which meant bye bye Tokyo and an evacuation of the west coast of the US. It is journalism like this that supports the opposition.

chownah

It's complicated, chownah.
First, the picture shows lakes and what look like shallow lake-beds, lots of them, and I'm not sure I can pick any deep craters. The one shown in the second pic suggests they are much smaller than the lakes.
Second, permafrost is up to 1500 metres thick in some places - see http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/452187/permafrost.
Third (and on the sceptical side), I can't help wondering what might trigger a deep pocket of methane to thaw and erupt - I would have thought that shallow pockets would blow first.

I wouldn't call it fear-mongering. There is an enormous amount of methane in the northern hemisphere permafrost and whether, how and when it may be released are all totally legitimate concerns. And no-one yet knows enough about it to make any sound predictions, as you will have seen if your followed my second link. In that respect it's a bit different from the Fukushima situation, where experts could at least say "If this happens, then that will happen."
Fear-mongering on this issue would be saying we have passed a tipping point and we'll be living (dying) with a runaway greenhouse effect in ten years. They don't say that.

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby chownah » Sun Aug 03, 2014 5:15 am

What is complicated?
I most definitely would call it fear mongering. There is no evidence as to how the crateres formed and the article is telling us what is scary.

Thanks for the permafrost info. I didn't know that permanently frozen dry earth is considered to be permafrost.....I'm still wondering how thawing of the wet surface permafrost which is usually a few meters thick or less could cause a 200 m wide seemingly bottomless crater. Can anyone come up with a plausible scenario? If the surface thaws and the water migrates downward it would encounter earth cold enough to refreeze it I think but I don't really know......the whole idea really seems implausible to me. Also, it seems that earth was ejected from the craters.....how does melting permafrost do that?......boggle boggle boggle........
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Mkoll » Sun Aug 03, 2014 5:29 am

chownah wrote:I didn't know that permanently frozen dry earth is considered to be permafrost

That's precisely what permafrost is.

~~~

Clearly, extraterrestrials made the craters.

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Kim OHara » Sun Aug 03, 2014 6:36 am

chownah wrote:What is complicated?
I most definitely would call it fear mongering. There is no evidence as to how the crateres formed and the article is telling us what is scary.

Thanks for the permafrost info. I didn't know that permanently frozen dry earth is considered to be permafrost.....I'm still wondering how thawing of the wet surface permafrost which is usually a few meters thick or less could cause a 200 m wide seemingly bottomless crater. Can anyone come up with a plausible scenario? If the surface thaws and the water migrates downward it would encounter earth cold enough to refreeze it I think but I don't really know......the whole idea really seems implausible to me. Also, it seems that earth was ejected from the craters.....how does melting permafrost do that?......boggle boggle boggle........

I think you may have to do more reading, chownah, because you still seem to be muddled about the difference between permafrost (hundreds of metres) and what Britannica calls the 'active layer' (tens of metres at most).
Also, water-ice in the permafrost won't cause an eruption but the methane trapped in it can do so - think of a bubble of gas plopping up through the mud of a geyser, or a bubble of steam rising to the surface of a pot of curry. :stirthepot:

Over to you ... :reading:

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Ron-The-Elder » Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:20 am

My guess is that these "craters" are formed when calcified substrata is dissolved as water-ice melts, causing a collapse of surface formations. We see the same effect all the time in places like Florida where entire houses fall into these caves as the calcified subsoil is washed away by acidic water.

It is nothing new to find large methane pockets in deep caves. Miners run into it all the time. It has probably been around for millions of years and is now being released as the soil dissolves and warms. Methane Clathrate is one of my favorite sources of such methane releases, thought to be one of the possible causes of ships and aircraft disappearing in "The Bermuda Triangle" region of the South Atlantic. :toilet: :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Bermuda_Triangle

Then there is this well known atmospheric chemical reaction in the presence of lightning, or volcanic heat souces:

The stoichiometric ratio of oxidizer and fuel is 2:1, for an oxygen:methane engine.
CH4 + 2 O2 → CO2 + 2 H2O
Last edited by Ron-The-Elder on Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby cooran » Sun Aug 03, 2014 7:23 am

Latest explanation from Scientists about what caused the craters:


Scientists think they may have solved the Siberian Crater Mystery
http://www.iflscience.com/environment/s ... er-mystery

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby chownah » Sun Aug 03, 2014 9:07 am

Kim OHara wrote:
chownah wrote:What is complicated?
I most definitely would call it fear mongering. There is no evidence as to how the crateres formed and the article is telling us what is scary.

Thanks for the permafrost info. I didn't know that permanently frozen dry earth is considered to be permafrost.....I'm still wondering how thawing of the wet surface permafrost which is usually a few meters thick or less could cause a 200 m wide seemingly bottomless crater. Can anyone come up with a plausible scenario? If the surface thaws and the water migrates downward it would encounter earth cold enough to refreeze it I think but I don't really know......the whole idea really seems implausible to me. Also, it seems that earth was ejected from the craters.....how does melting permafrost do that?......boggle boggle boggle........

I think you may have to do more reading, chownah, because you still seem to be muddled about the difference between permafrost (hundreds of metres) and what Britannica calls the 'active layer' (tens of metres at most).
Also, water-ice in the permafrost won't cause an eruption but the methane trapped in it can do so - think of a bubble of gas plopping up through the mud of a geyser, or a bubble of steam rising to the surface of a pot of curry. :stirthepot:

Over to you ... :reading:

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Kim

I think you are muddled about my post in that I think I understand the active layer concept which Britannica puts at "less than a foot in thickness in wet, organic sediments to several feet in well-drained gravels." You also seem to confuse tens of meters with several feet. Tens of meters would be at least 20 meters which would be over 60 feet and it is probaby a pretty rare occurance that that organic sediments would extend over a say 3 or 4 meters as in a bog....although ancient bogs do exist. Regardless, there would not be enough methane present even in 20 metres of organic sediments to make a hole the size reported. If methane did push out this hole it seems unlikely that it came from the decomposition of organic material in the active layer but it seems more likely that there was a pocket of methane in the ground much like what Ron-the-Elder was talking about in his post.
In any event it seems unlikely that this event poses a risk to global warming in any appreciable way above and beyond what is happening worldwide in the melting of the active layer of the permafrost.
chownah
P.S. If the permafrost contained a cave full of methane and if the wet frozen permafrost above trapped the methane inside and then the wet frozen permafrost melted and released the methane from the cave would this be considered to be methane released from permafrost because of climate change? This sort of event is so rare I think that it does not pose an appreciable threat above and beyond the overall melting of the active layer which is where the vast majority of methane trapped in permafrost exists and where the real danger lies.....I think.
chownah

Mkoll,
No, that is not the definition of permafrost. Evidently the definition of permafrost is independent of moisture content.......the soil does not need to be dry.....it can be wet or dry.
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Mkoll » Sun Aug 03, 2014 10:23 am

chownah wrote:Mkoll,
No, that is not the definition of permafrost. Evidently the definition of permafrost is independent of moisture content.......the soil does not need to be dry.....it can be wet or dry.
chownah

Yes, you're right. Apparently there are all sorts of flavors of permafrost.
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby chownah » Sun Aug 03, 2014 10:58 am

Having looked around in my own muddled way I have noticed that someone has already made it to the bottom of the seemingly bottomless crater which is only 200 ft across and not the 200 m that I said earlier. Does anyone know how deep it turned out to be? I would be interested in knowing how deep qualifies as seemingly bottomless. I'm trying to imagine a seemingly bottomless hole 200 ft across filled with curry and then a giant bubble arising from the bottom (wondering how it formed at the bottom of a seemingly bottomless hole of frozen curry) and ejecting the entire contents of the seemingly bottomless hole.....a seemingly bottomless hole would contain about pi times 200 squared times a seemingly infinite depth of cubic feet of frozen curry.....where did all that curry go? Of course maybe 200 feet qualifies as seemingly bottomless.......but a seemingly bottomless crater encourages more fear and uncertainty ( :jawdrop: ) than a 200 foot deep crater ( :zzz: ).....
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Kim OHara » Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:18 am

More information for all who are interested ...
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/frozenground/methane.html Is written very simply by someone who does really know his subject. A key quote from it is ...
Right now, the Earth's atmosphere contains about 850 gigatons of carbon. (A gigaton is one billion tons—about the weight of one hundred thousand school buses). We estimate that there are about 1,400 gigatons of carbon frozen in permafrost. So the carbon frozen in permafrost is greater than the amount of carbon that is already in the atmosphere today.

... so yes, there is enough of the stuff to be a worry.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_release
and
http://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/melting_permafrost.asp#methane provide more info.

http://www.treehugger.com/climate-change/tipping-point-action-twice-much-methane-released-due-seabed-permafrost-melting.html probably does count as fear-mongering. Then again, it's hard to know how scared we should be when we really don't know how big the threat is.
:shrug:
One more thing to bear in mind is that a lot of climate science is very new science. That means (1) if you learned about something ten years ago, you probably have to learn about it all over again now and (2) there are still areas which are largely unmapped and some of them, like this one, are marked "Here be monsters".

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Mkoll » Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:30 am

Kim OHara wrote:(2) there are still areas which are largely unmapped and some of them, like this one, are marked "Here be monsters".

Yeah, like the ocean.

NOAA wrote:To date, we have explored less than five percent of the ocean.


I'm sure we'll find Cthulhu some day down there...

I love it, the spell-check recognizes Cthulhu.

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Ron-The-Elder » Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:51 am

Climate Change Update from NASA:

http://climate.nasa.gov/
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby appicchato » Fri Aug 08, 2014 3:25 am

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Mkoll » Fri Aug 08, 2014 4:23 am

appicchato wrote:http://motherboard.vice.com/read/f*** :coffee:

I'm getting a 404 error so the link is probably bad.
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby appicchato » Fri Aug 08, 2014 5:15 am

Sorry...same link but through ask.com works...it's the first one at the top of the page... :coffee:

http://www.ask.com/web?q=vice.com+arcti ... eSearchBox
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby culaavuso » Fri Aug 08, 2014 5:21 am

Mkoll wrote:
appicchato wrote:http://motherboard.vice.com/read/f*** :coffee:

I'm getting a 404 error so the link is probably bad.


Fixed link. There appears to be an offensive language filter preventing the link from posting in its original form.
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Kim OHara » Fri Aug 08, 2014 8:23 am

culaavuso wrote:
Mkoll wrote:
appicchato wrote:http://motherboard.vice.com/read/f*** :coffee:

I'm getting a 404 error so the link is probably bad.


Fixed link. There appears to be an offensive language filter preventing the link from posting in its original form.

Thanks, Culaavuso
I can see why the filter kicked in but I can see why the scientist was using such language, too.

As I said somewhere earlier in the thread, Arctic methane is one of the big unknowns, and it's a scary one.

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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Ron-The-Elder » Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:12 am

Looking at NASA's CO2 Emissions Map it appears that 2009 was the worse time period, but has improved since.

http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/cl ... me_machine

NASA's Global Warming Map does a great job of providing a visualization of the temp increase trend since 1880:

http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/cl ... me_machine

There are two other maps available on NASA's website illustrating changes in polar ice and sea levels. Those living a few kilometers from the sea will soon have "waterfront" properties.

The whole system is called "The Climate Time Machine":

http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/cl ... me_machine
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Re: Global Warming: Recent Data

Postby Kim OHara » Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:27 am

Ron-The-Elder wrote:Looking at NASA's CO2 Emissions Map it appears that 2009 was the worse time period, but has improved since.

http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/cl ... me_machine

Neat mapping tool, Ron, (at a certain cost in bandwidth) but it only covers a short timeframe.
The dip in 2009 was a shortlived result of the GFC - see http://theconversation.com/the-emissions-rebound-after-the-gfc-why-greenhouse-gases-went-up-in-2010-5818.

I don't know if you were making a connection with the methane emissions we were just talking about. I hope not, though, because there isn't one. :thinking:

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