longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

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longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby PeterB » Sun Apr 18, 2010 12:28 pm

With the latest reports of the effects of the Icelandic volcano possibly lasting for " months" the financial and other implications are becoming clearer.
Firstly, if the worst case scenario is realised the financial situation of all Euopean airlines and all airlines that depend for a lot of their income on European routes will rapidly become inviable.
Secondly those countries who derive a big proportion of their income from European tourists will suffer.
Thirdly fruit and vegetables and other perishables imported into and out of Europe are already beginning to rot in warehouses.
leading both to food shortages and to a loss of income for the growers.
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby BubbaBuddhist » Sun Apr 18, 2010 1:22 pm

Yes, this is serious.

Alternative forms of airtravel will have to be trotted out. Zeppelins? Airkites? Autogyros? Whatever is in Hanger 13 at Area 51? Our ingenuity will be tested, for sure. Someone better think of something fast.

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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby appicchato » Sun Apr 18, 2010 1:26 pm

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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby PeterB » Sun Apr 18, 2010 1:33 pm

I am writing from our apartment about 8 miles from Heathrow and the skys are blue and trail-free and it is delightfully quiet.
Obviously solutions will be found for the tourists stranded in various places.
if it continues though the economies of places like Greece.... the Islands depend on tourism. And Kenya, which exports fruit and vegetables to Europe, will be badly hit.
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby Ben » Sun Apr 18, 2010 2:21 pm

Interesting days ahead, Peter.
I hope for all our sakes, the economic impact is overstated.
Kind regards

Ben
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby PeterB » Sun Apr 18, 2010 2:25 pm

Yes...or the volcano goes to sleep again.

:anjali:

P.
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby Kare » Sun Apr 18, 2010 6:39 pm

If you want to know who is responsible for the volcanic eruption, take a look at the true face of the volcano :twisted:

Image

The Icelanders also crack jokes about the volcano:

Image

"Leave 30 billion Euros in the dust bin of the Icelandic embassy tonight, and we'll turn off the volcano. Don't call the police!
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby jcsuperstar » Sun Apr 18, 2010 7:21 pm

what? i'm pretty sure fruits and veggies here in the states go by truck and maybe train but not by plane. it's odd that you guys are just gonna let food rot and people go hungry when you have what is pretty much the best rail systems in the world... not to mention highways etc... get with it Europeans!!!
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby Mawkish1983 » Sun Apr 18, 2010 7:59 pm

jcsuperstar wrote:you have what is pretty much the best rail systems in the world
If only you knew how truly dire our transport systems were :)
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby Aloka » Sun Apr 18, 2010 8:14 pm

Mawkish1983 wrote:
jcsuperstar wrote:you have what is pretty much the best rail systems in the world
If only you knew how truly dire our transport systems were :)


I'll second that ! In the UK the rail system is completely unreliable - and there have been lots of problems with Eurostar too.
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby PeterB » Sun Apr 18, 2010 8:39 pm

And the idea of a rail link from Africa to the Uk is a hoot.
It would be ok until Dover...then it would be clown car territory. :tongue: Doors falling off..water spouts..
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby PeterB » Sun Apr 18, 2010 8:43 pm

Actually we can source foodstuffs widely. The point is the economies of places like Kenya would be badly hit.
It exports veg to europe.
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby BlackBird » Mon Apr 19, 2010 1:35 am

Bubbabuddhist wrote:Someone better think of something fast.


Oh, they will - There's plenty of money to be made. Not that I personally believe it will help our longterm situation. Our civilization is far to rigid and dependent upon perfect economic and natural conditions in order to sustain itself, conditions which in the long run will never be forthcoming.

Whether a global depression happens this year, next year or in five years time, I'm pretty sure the party's over.

Short list of reasons why:
- Even one of the most conservative energy big-wigs Dr. Fatih Birol (chief economist of the IEA) is now admitting we're headed for an oil crunch in the next 5 years, to say nothing of those of a more liberal opinion source source 2
- We're setting ourselves up for an even bigger economic crisis than the Sub-prime mortgage distaster which triggerred the global recession of 2008. Nobody has really learned from the mistakes of 2008, and the solution thus far has been to borrow more and more money. source 1 source 2 source 3
- A growing number of nations in the world are now faced with the very real possibility of defaulting on their loans, leading to what has been dubbed the 'sovereign debt crisis' source 1 source 2 source 3
- Climate change. Scientists are now predicting that we're going to see some very extreme weather over the coming years source
- Just to top it all off, scientists are warning that this current volcano in Iceland, may in fact just be the beginning. source

So there's no shortage of 'spanners in the works' here and this fiscal paradigm of borrowing money that isn't there because: "We'll be able to pay it off in future" just doesn't cut the mustard.

Whatever happens, it's going to be a very turbulent decade, and I echo the concerns of the experts that everyone seems to be rather oblivious, or at least overly optimistic that the great human ingenuity will be able to solve all our problems. I hope like hell the optimists are right, but logic seems to suggest otherwise.

metta
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby Ben » Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:21 am

Hi Jack
I'm a little reluctant to believe the predictions of a catastrophic market collapse. I think what is more likely is a drawn out period of volatility and low growth. Keep in mind that during 2008/09, not all countries were in recession. While many of the major economies were in recession, there were others that did go through two consecutive quarters of negative growth. That is not to say that the impact of the credit crunch was not profound or widespread.
As for the volcanic eruption in iceland being the 'just the beginning' - who knows. I'd prefer to wait and see.
kind regards

Ben
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby BlackBird » Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:27 am

Fair enough Ben.

I don't expect many people to agree with my conclusions on the matter, nevertheless it's something to bear in mind, so that contingencies can be laid down - Even if it is only regarded as a possibility.
"For a disciple who has conviction in the Teacher's message & lives to penetrate it, what accords with the Dhamma is this:
'The Blessed One is the Teacher, I am a disciple. He is the one who knows, not I." - MN. 70 Kitagiri Sutta
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby Ben » Mon Apr 19, 2010 2:29 am

Absolutely!
I note that one of your references is an article by George Soros. He is one very interesting guy.
metta

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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby PeterB » Mon Apr 19, 2010 5:45 pm

The UK aviation body are hoping that flights can recommence tomorrow..the apocalypse will need to be rescheduled.
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby Moggalana » Mon Apr 19, 2010 6:13 pm

December 31, 2012 will be the END anyway :tongue:

Edit: It is December 21 actually. Sorry guys..
Last edited by Moggalana on Mon Apr 19, 2010 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby PeterB » Mon Apr 19, 2010 6:18 pm

Of course... :lol:
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Re: longer term financial and social implications of the Iceland

Postby jcsuperstar » Mon Apr 19, 2010 6:50 pm

i thought it was 12/21/2012
woohoo i get another week!
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