Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

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No_Mind
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by No_Mind »

It's the sixth month of the pandemic and there are members here who believe masks should not be mandated :?

:namaste: (very confused namaste)

No_Mind
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Kim OHara
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by Kim OHara »

No_Mind wrote: Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:40 am It's the sixth month of the pandemic and there are members here who believe masks should not be mandated :?

:namaste: (very confused namaste)

No_Mind
In some places there is no need for masks because there is no COVID in the community and the borders of the community are closed. Masks should not be mandated there.

Where there is a lot of illness in the community, masks should be mandated. They help healthy people stay healthy, and they reduce the chances of sick people spreading the illness.

:coffee:
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No_Mind
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by No_Mind »

Kim OHara wrote: Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:06 am
No_Mind wrote: Sat Aug 15, 2020 10:40 am It's the sixth month of the pandemic and there are members here who believe masks should not be mandated :?

:namaste: (very confused namaste)

No_Mind
In some places there is no need for masks because there is no COVID in the community and the borders of the community are closed. Masks should not be mandated there.

Where there is a lot of illness in the community, masks should be mandated. They help healthy people stay healthy, and they reduce the chances of sick people spreading the illness.

:coffee:
Kim
If you mean that community is a bubble then I guess one may not .. I was referring more to Georgia, US type of situation

:namaste:
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SarathW
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by SarathW »

Additionally, healthcare workers who join St Vincent's Melbourne will be given a $2000 travel voucher to see Victoria once restrictions lift.

The initiative comes as healthcare workers at the hospital take part in a clinical trial to investigate whether controversial drug hydroxychloroquine can protect doctors and nurses while they treat COVID-19 positive patients.

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/melbourne ... ocid=ientp
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No_Mind
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by No_Mind »

Meanwhile, we have been moving slowly towards herd immunity. Some parts of India have seen 50% test positive in antibody tests.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newslett ... y-in-india

The number of deaths are not very high at 62,000. They may have been fudged but no more than 100,000 at most.

The hospital system was never overwhelmed .. at least not till now.

I may have had coronavirus. Don't know for certain. But had fever and bodyache, the classic signs.

The general consensus is have paracetamol, gurgle several times a day, use pulse oxymeter and visit hospital only if SpO2 gets less than 95%. Otherwise ignore it and focus on life.

It is not possible to stay in a "fight or flight" state for months as medical professionals want.

Even after 8 months, epidemiologists cannot tell us anything for certain.

I think we won't need the vaccine after all. Yes, get the shot but by that time, a year hence, it will hardly matter ..

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Caodemarte
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by Caodemarte »

No_Mind wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:28 pm Meanwhile, we have been moving slowly towards herd immunity. Some parts of India have seen 50% test positive in antibody test...
Even after 8 months, epidemiologists cannot tell us anything for certain....I think we won't need the vaccine after all. Yes, get the shot but by that time, a year hence, it will hardly matter ..
It appears that number of cases and deaths has actually greatly increased in India. India just saw its highest numbers
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... rus-number

In public health, “herd immunity” refers to breaking the chain of transmission of a disease by vaccinating as many as possible in a group so that a lone unvaccinated person would not be exposed. Since we do not have a vaccine what is now popularly called “herd immunity” is really eugenics by letting the disease run its course and hope the survivors are immune for genetic reasons or that once having gotten the disease victims will develop immunity. Neither seems very likely in this case and has not been demonstrated in any infectious disease I know of in historical time.

“Herd immunity” in the now popular sense has certainly not been achieved in India for measles and other infectious diseases There is little reason to believe it would be possible to achieve it with coronavirus in practice, certainly not without mass deaths that would destroy any economic or social recovery. There is increasing evidence that it would be impossible to achieve even in theory with mass deaths. https://www.laboratoryequipment.com/566 ... -Possible/

It is important to note that we do know what measures (for example, those taken in Italy or New Zealand) will control this infectious disease. And we know what measures or policies do not.
Last edited by Caodemarte on Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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No_Mind
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

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Caodemarte wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:27 am
No_Mind wrote: Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:28 pm Meanwhile, we have been moving slowly towards herd immunity. Some parts of India have seen 50% test positive in antibody test...
Even after 8 months, epidemiologists cannot tell us anything for certain....I think we won't need the vaccine after all. Yes, get the shot but by that time, a year hence, it will hardly matter ..
It appears that number of cases and deaths has actually greatly increased in India. India just saw its highest numbers
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... rus-number

In public health, “herd immunity” refers to breaking the chain of transmission of a disease by vaccinating as many as possible in a group so that a lone unvaccinated person would not be exposed. Since we do not have a vaccine what is now popularly called “herd immunity” is really eugenics by letting the disease run its course and hope the survivors are immune for genetic reasons or that once having gotten the disease victims will develop immunity. Neither seems very likely in this case and has not been demonstrated in any infectious disease I know of in historical time.

“Herd immunity” in the now popular sense has certainly not been achieved in India for measles and other infectious diseases There is little reason to believe it would be possible to achieve it with coronavirus in practice, certainly not without mass deaths that would destroy any economic or social recovery. There is increasing evidence that it would be impossible to achieve even in theory with mass deaths. https://www.laboratoryequipment.com/566 ... -Possible/

It is important to note that we do know what measures (for example, those taken in Italy or New Zealand) will control this infectious disease. And we know what measures or policies do not.
It is difficult to speak about this with any level of certainty since no one knows .. and also because no one knows about diseases such as measles or chicken pox too (not slamming scientists but the pandemic has made us aware of how little they know about more or less anything)

While case numbers can be hidden or rather fudged .. deaths cannot be. Hindus and Sikhs cremate their dead. Cannot just be hidden away. Needs a lot of effort to burn a body. And the local administration is able to maintain complete count of all who have died.

People would notice if more died. More hearses. More flowers sold. More need for priests to perform last rites. Too many indicators.

My locality has about 8,000 people. There have been 3 deaths. I have no doubt that if tested .. at least 35% would be positive for antibodies.

65,000 have died till now. Okay fudged. Make it 130,000 till now.

And let's say in all 1.5 million? Maybe 2? That is 0.15% of the population. Make it 8 million. Even then it is barely above 0.5% of the population.

Not opening up the economy causes poverty that is worse. Far worse. The government does not have bottomless coffers. It has already guaranteed food grains to 80% of the population for a year, free treatment and so on.

What is strange in India is that the case load is weirdly skewed against the well-off in ratio of 85:15. No one can figure out why. My own guess is that those who live in air-conditioned homes have low immunity. Those who do manual labor and sweat are able to keep on being asymptomatic.

The public hospitals that are meant for the less well-off are never at 100% utilization. The government was shocked to find that the 100 ventilators in public hospitals of Calcutta designated for Covid were mostly not needed. Just paracetamol and bed rest .. did the trick.

The parallel, private, expensive healthcare that we draw upon is overburdened (because the middle class also buys quite expensive private insurance that makes treatment at these facilities possible).

At this point a vaccine seems more or less .. not useless but yeah okay type of thing .. A month back we were all following Stage I, II, III with rapt attention.

Edit Add - (I realize that mods have to work extra for giving approval each time I amend and there will be no more of these)

What I was trying to say in the preceding post is that all social distancing norms though still in place is no longer enforced. There is a cap of 100 on gatherings so that no super-spreader events happen.

Ultimately we realized (with more infections than anywhere else in the world .. I would think that 30% of all urban population ... 30% of 400 million or 120 million infected are already ..) that the best way to tackle the Covid pandemic was to fall (give up resisting) but slowly .. one cannot keep 1300 million locked up in their home ad infinitum .. April, May everyone cooperated, June there was quiet discontent and stress, July there were rumblings, by mid-August it has all been allowed to return to normal or there would have been consequences.

That is what I meant by "we are slowly moving to herd immunity" .. those who wish to remain careful and maintain social distancing (like me) do .. rest are free to do as they please with no attempt to halt it.

:namaste:
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Caodemarte
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by Caodemarte »

No_Mind wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:53 am....
It is difficult to speak about this with any level of certainty since no one knows .. and also because no one knows about diseases such as measles or chicken pox too (not slamming scientists but the pandemic has made us aware of how little they know about more or less anything)....

Actually we do know quite a bit. Economists know it is a bad, bad strategy to try to “restore” the economy by ignoring public health. You save the economy by saving the people. Public health specialists know how to end epidemics of measles and chicken pox as well as slow the coronavirus until we have a safe, effective, tested vaccine and treatment (possibly sometime in 2021 for a real vaccine, certainly not in the next 3 months). But you have to listen.

India presses ahead with reopening as daily coronavirus caseload surges to record-breaking high
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/asia/ind ... index.html
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by No_Mind »

Caodemarte wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:05 pm
No_Mind wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:53 am....
It is difficult to speak about this with any level of certainty since no one knows .. and also because no one knows about diseases such as measles or chicken pox too (not slamming scientists but the pandemic has made us aware of how little they know about more or less anything)....

Actually we do know quite a bit. Economists know it is a bad, bad strategy to try to “restore” the economy by ignoring public health. You save the economy by saving the people. Public health specialists know how to end epidemics of measles and chicken pox as well as slow the coronavirus until we have a safe, effective, tested vaccine and treatment (possibly sometime in 2021 for a real vaccine, certainly not in the next 3 months). But you have to listen.

India presses ahead with reopening as daily coronavirus caseload surges to record-breaking high
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/asia/ind ... index.html
With all due respect I beg to differ. There is no explanation why the slums are not reporting high mortality.

I am not a science basher. Quite the opposite. But I wish that there would be more focused studies on Indian slums and Covid fatalities.

The scientists here are not able to understand it at all.

Maybe there is really something as simple as World War Z and no one has connected the dots yet.
"The struggle itself toward the heights is enough to fill a man's heart. One must imagine Sisyphus happy.”― Albert Camus
Caodemarte
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by Caodemarte »

No_Mind wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:26 pm
With all due respect I beg to differ. There is no explanation why the slums are not reporting high mortality.

I am not a science basher. Quite the opposite. But I wish that there would be more focused studies on Indian slums and Covid fatalities.

The scientists here are not able to understand it at all....
Indian public health experts are perfectly able to account for low (confirmed) immortality rates in slums from covid or TB or any other contagious disease. They are always under reported and under tested in low income areas. Even in high income areas the contagious rate is always underestimated. Additionally, lack of wide spread testing for any disease will produce low rates of confirmed infection while having no effect on real rates of infections. There is also misreporting. For years, Sri Lanka had an extremely low malaria rate until it was discovered that local public heath officials at all levels were simply making up the numbers to look good. In the US local officials in Georgia and Florida simply altered the numbers or re-arranged the numbers to show a declining rate of covid infections when the confirmed cases were actually rising (they were caught by the press and promised to "do better" in the future).

India is now showing a record high and an accelerating rate of increase. However, Indian public health experts. will tell you that the problem is actually much worse than shown. It is not hopeless. We can take measures to control and later eliminate public health threats.
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by No_Mind »

Caodemarte wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 11:01 pm
No_Mind wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:26 pm
With all due respect I beg to differ. There is no explanation why the slums are not reporting high mortality.

I am not a science basher. Quite the opposite. But I wish that there would be more focused studies on Indian slums and Covid fatalities.

The scientists here are not able to understand it at all....
Indian public health experts are perfectly able to account for low (confirmed) immortality rates in slums from covid or TB or any other contagious disease. They are always under reported and under tested in low income areas. Even in high income areas the contagious rate is always underestimated. Additionally, lack of wide spread testing for any disease will produce low rates of confirmed infection while having no effect on real rates of infections. There is also misreporting. For years, Sri Lanka had an extremely low malaria rate until it was discovered that local public heath officials at all levels were simply making up the numbers to look good. In the US local officials in Georgia and Florida simply altered the numbers or re-arranged the numbers to show a declining rate of covid infections when the confirmed cases were actually rising (they were caught by the press and promised to "do better" in the future).

India is now showing a record high and an accelerating rate of increase. However, Indian public health experts. will tell you that the problem is actually much worse than shown. It is not hopeless. We can take measures to control and later eliminate public health threats.
Again I beg to differ.

Let me explain in slight detail so you understand.

In Indian cities the slums criss-cross between middle class and posh neighborhoods (or where are the maids supposed to live). That is why many of us are extremely well acquainted with what goes on inside a slum.

My neighborhood is sandwiched between two slums .. lets say A and B.

A had a case in April. B had two cases in late July. Both were put in "containment" that is no one can enter or leave. But since the rooms are no more than 50 sq ft it is hard to prevent those who live there from coming out and talking to each other, gossiping, sharing moonshine, playing cards and of course last but not least prevent the young ones from dating.

I am part of an informal local monitoring committee for Covid. There were no more cases. Asymptomatic .. probably. Symptomatic .. no.

Why no one knows. Least of all Indian scientists who feel "superior" to rest of us (common affliction among them ... ooh I could have been another Sundar Pichai but fate deemed otherwise mentality). They write all types of BS and send it to WHO and other publications.

I know about slum B in greater detail since my maid lives there. Two patients in late July .. one female 55 and the other male 20. Both recovered after basic hospital treatment and back to work from September 1.

Slum B is about 700 yards long and 200 yards wide. There are about 2,000 residents. Only 2 symptomatic cases even though the latrines are communal? No deaths? I am an eye witness. I cannot disbelieve what I have seen.

Anyway this is increasingly getting pointless.

:namaste:
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by cappuccino »

No_Mind wrote: Thu Sep 03, 2020 7:26 pm There is no explanation why the slums are not reporting high mortality.

But I wish that there would be more focused studies on Indian slums and Covid fatalities.
Hm…
Last edited by cappuccino on Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
Caodemarte
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by Caodemarte »

No_Mind wrote: Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:13 am ...
Again I beg to differ....Let me explain in slight detail so you understand....Indian scientists who feel "superior" to rest of us (common affliction among them ... o). They write all types of BS and send it to WHO and other publications.....I know about slum...in greater detail since my maid lives there.....
You are differing with Indian data. If you are better informed than Indian public health specialists I suggest you correct them.in the meantime I would urge all not to indulge in wishful thinking, take the sensible precautions you can for the safety of yourself and others, and support efforts to protect public health
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by chownah »

No_Mind,
Here is an article which discusses many factors which relate to Indian demographics and the prevelance of covid-19, the related deaths, and the reporting of the prevelance of cases and deaths:
Title: Data and demographics: Is the COVID-19 death rate lower in the developing world?
https://globalnews.ca/news/7240320/data ... ing-world/
There is lots of stuff in the article. One thing that caught my eye was that it says the 70% of deaths in India are not issued death certificates.....
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Re: Coronavirus (Wellness, Diet & Fitness)

Post by No_Mind »

chownah wrote: Sat Sep 05, 2020 2:59 pm No_Mind,
Here is an article which discusses many factors which relate to Indian demographics and the prevelance of covid-19, the related deaths, and the reporting of the prevelance of cases and deaths:
Title: Data and demographics: Is the COVID-19 death rate lower in the developing world?
https://globalnews.ca/news/7240320/data ... ing-world/
There is lots of stuff in the article. One thing that caught my eye was that it says the 70% of deaths in India are not issued death certificates.....
chownah
I am stressing on few things that are being ignored.

A) Let deaths be 50% fudged. Even then ... I wrote that at 8 million deaths by 2022 we shall barely affect 0.5% population. Incidentally annual deaths in India (usually)also stand at 8 million and we had been worried that there would be 16 million deaths this year. That is being staggered over 3 years. Quite acceptable.

B) My original point was we have accepted Covid as part of our life. Above somewhere I have provided a video link from WHO (back in July) asking us to accept Covid as part of our life.

C) It is impossible for humans to stay shut up in their home for over 60 days. Even WWII did not create that situation.

D) Not being able to earn is very humiliating. It is not a matter of poverty. People like to be occupied, do something. Even well off people are depressed if they can't go to work. If it was left to scientists none of us 7.3 billion would step outside our home till a vaccine was available. Unacceptable.

E) In such a situation staggered deaths are acceptable risk. In plain words it is the cost of doing business - the cost of keeping the engine of this world running.

F) I wrote generally. Not for left/liberals who weep if one life is lost. I am not an idealist, nor have the time, energy and inclination to be one.

G) 70% deaths in India are not reported? 33% of the population live in urban areas. You cannot sneeze without it getting reported to someone.

Everything we do is tied to a government database somewhere. Even in rural areas. I honestly don't know how these journalists get their facts and figures.

I am amazed when I see people walking into a mall in USA without any interruption. Here at every step you are patted down and have to pass through a metal detector. You do not even know what is surveillance until you live here for few years. Very Eastern Europe circa 1960.

H) I am on a dopamine fast and unable to communicate further at this moment.

:namaste:
"The struggle itself toward the heights is enough to fill a man's heart. One must imagine Sisyphus happy.”― Albert Camus
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